In the April 17, 2006 issue of the Telegraph (UK) a writer named Amir Taheri examines why Iran wants the bomb. Amir Taheri was formerly the Executive Editor of Kayhan, Iran's largest daily newspaper, but now lives in Europe. He seems to know what he’s talking about in his analysis of the present political landscape in Iran.
Mr. Taheri basically claims that Iran’s intentions are to (falsely) appear to back off on nuclear ambitions (which are directly related to a desire to provoke a "clash of civilizations" in which the Muslim world, led by Iran, takes on the "infidel" West, led by the United States, and defeats it in a slow but prolonged contest that, in military jargon, sounds like a low intensity, asymmetrical war.
The theory is that they must delay moving forward until George W. Bush is no longer an issue. Their timetable to dominance has been frustrated by the presidency of W because he is an aberration among Western leaders – not the kind to “cut and run”. Iran's current strategy, therefore, is to wait Bush out. And that, by "divine coincidence", corresponds to the time Iran needs to develop its nuclear arsenal, thus matching the only advantage that the infidel enjoys.
According to Taheri, Iran and its leader Ahmadinejad believe that hundreds of millions of Muslim "ghazis" (holy raiders) are keen to become martyrs while the infidel youths, loving life and fearing death, hate to fight. (Tell THAT to the Marines!) Islam also has four-fifths of the world's oil reserves, and so controls the lifeblood of the infidel. All of this sounds all too plausible, given the non-stop screeching of the Defeatocrats in Congress and the assorted leftwingnut pinheads on both Coasts in the neverending campaign of the useful idiots to lose Iraq and humiliate President Bush.
Mr. Taheri’s prediction is that at the end of the 12 days still left of the United Nations' Security Council "deadline", Ahmadinejad will announce a "temporary suspension" of uranium enrichment as a "confidence building measure". Taheri also predicts that, some time in June Ahmadinejad will agree to ask the Islamic parliament to consider signing the additional protocols of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT). Such maneuvers would allow the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director, Muhammad El-Baradei, and Britain's Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw, to congratulate Iran for its "positive gestures" and denounce talk of sanctions, let alone military action. The confidence building measures would never amount to anything, but their announcement would be enough to prevent the G8 summit, hosted by Russia in July, from moving against Iran.
All of this is truly terrifying in scope, but more than that, it sounds pretty familiar. Isn’t this more or less what North Korea pulled on our government during President Clinton’s administration?
I guess we’ll know when the Security Council’s deadline runs out. In the meantime, more than ever, I thank God for George W. Bush.